"The year 2023 will write a new roadmap for real estate," said real estate expert Amine Mernissi, estimating that "the 2023 Finance Law has laid the first milestones."
But for the author of the “Répons'IMMO” guide, "the main thing is to give visibility to a vital sector. Then, there is the national situation which is also dependent on a changing, even threatening, global situation."
He therefore calls for remaining humble. "Let's say that trust is the alpha and omega, both for operators who need to be able to continue working in a difficult and complex sector and for buyers who must feel supported and protected when it comes to making the purchase of a lifetime," he said in an interview with MAP.
Asked whether the year 2023 would be a good time to invest in real estate, Amine Mernissi believes that "it is always the right time to invest in real estate, at any time, when three conditions are met, namely need, opportunity and capacity."
In this regard, the real estate expert nevertheless advises to "assess your needs carefully and even be able to anticipate them". Before subsequently finding the right opportunity, "the one that makes you say 'I've already made a deal by buying, before thinking about reselling'", he insisted.
Examining one's financial situation should not be put aside, according to him. And for good reason: one must "be able to commit to the long term, because real estate is a long-term investment that requires prior reflection and consideration."
Regarding the real estate sector's performance over the past year, Amine Mernissi believes that 2022 was a mixed year for the sector. And for good reason, "real estate assets, whether new or old, did not experience the same economic situation or the same trajectory in 2022," he noted.
But before continuing his argument, the expert makes an observation: the Real Estate Asset Price Index (IPAI), published quarterly by the Central Bank and the National Agency for Land Conservation, Cadastre and Cartography (ANCFCC), analyses the second-hand market only, both in terms of price developments and transactions, and this, in different cities of the Kingdom.
According to him, "it does not cover the primary market, namely new real estate." In his eyes, "it is therefore a partial analysis of the reality of the market."
Given that new real estate is not covered by any official index, Amine Mernissi notes that it is "understood only through scattered data, gleaned from developers, notaries, credit institutions, real estate agents, architects."
Even though this is feedback from the field coming from the various players in the value chain that make up the real estate ecosystem, the latter states that this "does not in any way reduce the value and relevance of this information either".
In the secondary real estate market, i.e. second-hand, the expert believes that 2022 has seen a better economic climate than the primary market. An analysis that is corroborated by the latest figures from the IPAI for the third quarter of 2022.
These data show that "the indicators are returning to positive territory, and over a sliding year, transactions have made a double-digit jump (+45%) while the price index has increased, certainly, but overall in a limited way (+1.3%)", he recalled.
Regarding the primary market, the observation that emerges is that "the various sources consulted agree that 2022 was a difficult year, marked first by the increase in input prices and significant multi-sector inflation which impacted the purchasing power of households", he continued.
Given that the rise in prices has been announced by real estate players as inevitable in the coming months for new assets whose construction starts in 2022, Amine Mernissi believes that "buyers have preferred to turn, through anticipation and/or caution, to the second-hand market to look for opportunities there". He cites as proof that this observation is confirmed by the IPAI figures.
Regardless, "the reality is that investment opportunities exist in both new and old buildings, except that in new buildings, in times of crisis, you have to choose the "right" developer. The one who has the means to keep his commitments both in terms of deadlines and prices," he concluded.
Source:
www.libe.ma Alain Bouithy
Article from Monday December 19, 2022
